Tony Clarke, May 30, 2007, The Toronto Star - When California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger drops into Ottawa this week via his private jet to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, what message will he be delivering? More pointedly, what will the born-again climate crusader have to say about Canada's rapidly increasing exports of dirty crude oil to the U.S. from the Alberta tar sands that generate greenhouse gases which cause global warming?
These days, Schwarzenegger, better known to movie fans as the Terminator, is on a mission. In his "State of the State" address in early January, he announced that California would require a 10 per cent reduction in carbon content from all fuels sold in the state by 2020. Also, greenhouse gas emissions would be rolled back to 1990 levels by 2020 and further reduced by another 80 per cent by 2050.
"Our cars have been running on dirty fuel for too long," declared the newly minted green governor of California. Indeed, Schwarzenegger insists that California can lead the way for major changes in U.S. energy and environmental policies. "California has the muscle to bring about such change. I say use it. Let's blaze the way for the U.S., for China and for the rest of the world."
Over the past few months, Schwarzenegger has been crisscrossing the U.S., building support from other states for the California plan. Under the U.S. Clean Air Act, California is allowed to enact its own air pollution standards. And, if the state requests and receives a federal waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency, other states can join the bandwagon and apply a stricter set of standards and regulations.
So far, 11 states have indicated they will adopt the California plan if the EPA grants the required waiver. In addition to Oregon and Washington, which normally follow California's lead on environmental matters, several northeastern states have expressed interest, including New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maryland. As well, numerous midwest states, which have formed a pro-ethanol alliance, may also be keen on California's plan.
For the Alberta tar-sands industry, these developments spell bad news. After all, the California plan includes a formula that stipulates all greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of a fuel will be taken into account. In effect, not only does the crude oil product from the tar sands fail to meet the fuel quality standards of the California plan, but the greenhouse gas emissions that are generated to produce the crude would be more than sufficient to disqualify imports.
Today, the Alberta tar sands are well on their way to becoming Canada's Number 1 greenhouse gas emitter. In order to extract the oil from the bitumen, a massive amount of natural gas is burned, spewing tonnes of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. As a result, the tar-sands industry now produces almost three times more greenhouse gas emissions than conventional oil production.
What's more, the Harper government's recently announced green plan lets the tar-sands industry off the hook. By using "intensity-based targets" that limit emissions on a per barrel basis, the government applies no caps on expanded production. In the tar sands, where production is expected to quadruple by the year 2015, greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to grow from 27 million metric tonnes today to more than 126 million metric tonnes from this industry alone in less than a decade. Instead of curbing emissions, the Harper plan allows the tar sands to do the opposite.
Although only a tiny percentage of Alberta's tar-sands crude is piped to California, Schwarzenegger's plans could put a monkey wrench into the industry's market expansion strategies. True, there are refineries in other U.S. states that are hungry for this heavy oil. But in this age of climate change, if a significant number of key industrial states were to adopt the California plan or a similar package, U.S. market options for tar-sands crude would be considerably curtailed.
Meanwhile, California is still waiting for its federal waiver from the EPA. It is well known that the White House opposes mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions as a means for dealing with global warming. And, two weeks ago, President George Bush signed an executive order allowing federal agencies like the EPA to continue studying the issue until the end of 2008.
Nevertheless, Schwarzenegger appears determined to pursue his mission. Buoyed by a favourable Supreme Court ruling last month, he vowed his government would sue the EPA if it did not act soon on California's request for a waiver.
At Georgetown University earlier this year, he argued that California can use its leverage to tip the balance in favour of major environmental policy change. "We are sending the world a message," he said. "What we are saying is that we are going to change the dynamic on greenhouse gas and carbon emissions. We are taking actions ourselves. We are not waiting for anyone."
Obviously, as a sovereign nation, Canadian policies should not be dictated by U.S. politicians. But the California governor happens to be giving the kind of environmental leadership we need. Stephen Harper should heed the message by going back to the drawing board to overhaul his own green plan for Canada and take action now to rein in the tar-sands industry.